Venezuelan Crisis Deepens Amid Election Turmoil
The Venezuelan crisis has escalated into uncharted territory following the high turnout of the July 28 presidential elections, which have yet to produce verifiable results. Chavismo, the political movement led by President Nicolás Maduro and based on the ideas of the late Hugo Chávez, is exhibiting its most repressive tendencies amid growing suspicions of election fraud.
Opposition Under Siege
The opposition, led by María Corina Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González, is struggling to maintain its organizational strength in the face of increasing persecution. By publishing the tally sheets from the election results online, journalists, data experts, and international observers, such as the Carter Center, have conducted analyses casting doubt on the verdict of the National Electoral Council (CNE) that declared Nicolás Maduro the winner .
The government has responded with a violent crackdown on protesters, political leaders, and activists. This campaign, known as “Operation Tun Tun,” involves police and intelligence services actively hunting down opposition figures. The Attorney General’s Office claims to have arrested more than 1,200 people within a week, although other sources estimate the number closer to 2,000. These figures are significantly higher than those from the 2017 protests, which lasted four months .
International Response
The international community is attempting to mediate, with the United States, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia at the forefront. Even traditional allies of Chavismo, such as Argentina’s former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, have called for the tally sheets to be published "for the sake of Chávez’s legacy." There is also a growing wave of dissident Chavistas, close to Chávez, who are now confronting Maduro. Initially, it was believed that the presidential elections could serve as a way out of the prolonged Venezuelan conflict, but the path forward is now unclear.
Unprecedented Repression
Maduro has unleashed an open, televised, and violent persecution against protesters and opposition leaders. The state has issued widespread propaganda, warning that security forces will knock on the doors of Venezuelans' homes to arrest them. This fear is also palpable on social media, where people have changed their profile photos, updated contact details, and deleted past messages that might be critical of the government.
The opposition is left with little choice but to defend itself, limiting public appearances while dealing with the arrests of its collaborators and raids on their homes. The strategy now is to insist on the publication of the tally sheets and denounce human rights violations .
Political and Legal Maneuvering
Maduro has taken the conflict over the election results to the Supreme Court, which is controlled by the ruling party. This move has been in the works since the beginning of the year, with changes made to the composition of the magistrates. Caryslia Rodríguez, an active member of the ruling PSUV party until 2021, became president of the Supreme Court despite lacking a judicial career. Other appointments include Judge Edgar Gavidia, the brother of the ex-husband of the first lady Cilia Flores, and Tania D’Amelio, who was a deputy for Chavismo and then director of the CNE for 15 years .
The Role of the International Community
The international community is crucial in seeking a resolution to this new conflict. However, after a long history of stalled talks, it remains unclear whether negotiating with Maduro and his leadership is feasible. This week, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico are expected to work further on their plan to find a solution. A meeting of foreign ministers in Venezuela has not been ruled out but would only take place if there are guarantees of progress.
The plan involves an “impartial” verification of the tally sheets and a dialogue between Maduro and Edmundo González that excludes María Corina Machado, a point rejected by a large part of the opposition.
The Supreme Court's Deadline
The Supreme Court has given the CNE a deadline of 72 hours to present the results. The opposition has published some 25,000 tally sheets out of the 30,000 collected from the night of July 28. These tally sheets are crucial as they show the candidates’ names and the votes each received, providing transparency and a basis for verifying the election results.
The delivery of the data held by the CNE is expected to take place this Monday, a development that could either escalate the crisis or pave the way for a potential resolution.
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